The Adjacent Possible

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Stigmergy

- December 30, 2005

Yesterday, while reading a paper describing the evolution of certain networks, I stumbled upon this strange word: "Stigmergy". What to do? After a few minutes of web-crawling I learned it was used by the French biologist Pierre-Paul Grassé in 1959 to refer to certain aspects of termite behavior. It is now generally used to refer to a type of communication in which individuals (bacteria, ants, termites, people and other autonomous agents) communicate with one another by modifying their local environemnt. This blog is an example of stigmergy...

This blog is about the co-evolution of Society and Technology. To help me think about this in some orderly way, I have found the "adjacent possible" to be a useful idea [1]. The term describes the changing landscape of the distances between actual and potential "things" (such as tools, molecules, algorithms, institutions, etc.). Modifications and combinations of existing things changes the landscape which then allows new things to come into existence (electrical filament -> toaster -> multi-function toaster oven). Tools make new tools. The process unfolds and more related things come into existence (the air fryer). Some of these new things will have few decedents, others will have many, some will be prolific and radically alter the landscape of the possible (the gear, the transistor, the computer). Every new "thing" changes what can be reached in the adjacent possible. What is certain is, we can't predict beyond a few years with any degree of accuracy how "things" will evolve. This is especially troubling considering the adage "We make our tools, and then our tools make us" [2]. The stories here are not predictions. They are intended to make you think about the future we might, or not, want to create and then to act accordingly.

Notes:

1. The idea of an "Adjacent Possible" was first suggested in the context of genetics by the Biologist, Stuart Kauffman. History and examples are here: “Waves of Novelties in the Expansion into the Adjacent Possible". https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0179303

2. This adage is often attributed to Marshall McLuhan but mostly likely it evolved from other sources. See Quote Investigator https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/06/26/shape/

3. These stories freely combine fact and fiction. I use footnotes to point to some of the facts that inspired the fictional text. To appreciate the stories it is not necessary to read the footnotes. Occasionally they contain additional comments or questions that deserve further thought.